KANILAI, THE GAMBIA – In October 2025, the crackle of a WhatsApp audio message, relayed through loudspeakers in a village, sent political shockwaves through this small West African nation. From his exile haven over 3,000 kilometers away, former dictator Yahya Jammeh declared to hundreds of cheering supporters: “Nobody can prevent me from coming in. I have missed my country… I will come back in November 2025”.

Nearly nine years after fleeing The Gambia following a stunning election defeat, Jammeh’s promised return—which supporters later claimed was delayed by “unfinished logistical arrangements”—is more than a political stunt. It is a stark test of a nation’s fragile democracy, a stalled justice process, and a revealing case study in how deposed autocrats survive, fund their ambitions, and continue to haunt their homelands from afar.

The Fall and the Flight

Yahya Jammeh’s 22-year rule began with a bloodless coup in 1994, ending The Gambia’s rare history of stable democracy. What followed was a regime the Truth, Reconciliation and Reparations Commission (TRRC) would later find responsible for murders, torture, sexual violence, and enforced disappearances. His defeat in the 2016 election by Adama Barrow sparked a crisis; Jammeh initially refused to step down, only relenting under threat of an ECOWAS military intervention.

His departure in January 2017 was negotiated. Regional and international bodies pledged “dignity, respect, security and rights” for the ousted ruler to secure a peaceful transition. He boarded a plane with a reputed fortune—allegedly millions looted from state coffers—and found sanctuary in Equatorial Guinea, a country notorious for not recognizing the International Criminal Court’s jurisdiction.

Life in the Sanctuary: Equatorial Guinea

Since 2017, Equatorial Guinea has been Jammeh’s home. Under President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, it has become a refuge for former leaders facing international scrutiny. The country provides a critical shield, making extradition for prosecution extremely difficult.

From his compound, Jammeh has not lived in obscurity. He maintains a lifestyle of luxury, allegedly funded by assets frozen by several countries but presumably sustained by wealth moved abroad before his fall. More importantly, he has run a sustained long-distance political campaign. Using WhatsApp audio messages and intermediaries, he has consistently communicated with his base, decrying the current government’s management and stoking nostalgia for his rule.

In January 2025, he forcefully reasserted control over his political party, the Alliance for Patrioric Reorientation and Construction (APRC), stating, “I have decided to take over my party myself and will not entrust it to anyone again”. This move ensures the party machinery remains a tool for his influence, despite his physical absence.

The Dictator’s Exile Survival Guide

Jammeh’s enduring influence from exile is a textbook example of how fallen strongmen adapt. Analysis of authoritarian survival suggests several key strategies they employ once deposed:

· Wealth as a Weapon: The alleged embezzlement of state funds serves a dual purpose. It finances a comfortable exile, insulating the dictator from financial pressure. It also provides a war chest to maintain patronage networks back home, paying loyalists and funding political operations.
· Exploiting Political Alliances: Jammeh has skillfully exploited The Gambia’s political divides. President Barrow’s decision to form an alliance with a faction of Jammeh’s APRC ahead of the 2021 election, seen as a ploy to court loyalist voters, inadvertently legitimized and strengthened Jammeh’s political legacy. This has given Jammeh leverage and created factions within the government sympathetic to him.
· Nostalgia as a Narrative: From afar, Jammeh curates a selective memory of his rule. He dismisses the documented atrocities and instead highlights infrastructure projects, appealing to citizens frustrated with current economic hardships like rising prices and youth unemployment. This strategic nostalgia keeps a segment of the population loyal.
· The Threat of Chaos: The mere announcement of his return creates a dilemma for the government. Arresting him could provoke unrest among his fervent supporters. Allowing him to return freely would be a devastating blow to victims and the rule of law. This calculated ambiguity is a powerful tool.

A Nation on a Knife’s Edge

The Gambian government’s response to Jammeh’s return announcement has been unequivocal: he has a constitutional right to return, but no immunity from prosecution. Officials have stated he would face immediate arrest on charges based on the TRRC’s recommendations.

The stakes could not be higher. For victims and human rights advocates, Jammeh’s return without facing justice would be a profound betrayal.

“For us, Jammeh’s return without justice would reopen every wound this country has tried to heal,” says Fatoumata Sandeng, daughter of a murdered opposition activist.

The international community, particularly ECOWAS, faces criticism for its “continued ambiguity” over the alleged 2017 deal Jammeh cites for his safe return. This silence, analysts say, allows Jammeh to “weaponise that vacuum and portray himself as a victim”.

Meanwhile, the slow pace of implementing the TRRC’s recommendations—including the prosecution of Jammeh and 69 others—has created a justice vacuum. This delay has emboldened Jammeh and disillusioned victims, proving that deferred accountability only empowers the accused.

The Future: Reckoning or Return?

As of late 2025, Jammeh remains in Equatorial Guinea, his promised November return unfulfilled. The standoff continues. ECOWAS has approved a Special Tribunal for The Gambia, a hybrid court intended to prosecute the crimes of his era. This represents the clearest legal pathway to hold him accountable, but its establishment faces political and logistical hurdles.

The Gambia’s journey offers a crucial lesson for Africa and the world: exiling a dictator might end an immediate crisis, but it merely relocates the problem. Without robust, timely justice and the dismantling of their financial and political networks, autocrats can transform from deposed rulers into permanent shadows, destabilizing their nations from afar. The Gambia’s fragile peace now depends on whether it can finally convert the findings of its truth commission into concrete, unimpeachable justice.