Updated U.S. inflation data for July, August, and September (PCE) is expected to be released today, which could change the situation for BTC.

➠ Current picture:
▪️ BTC: -30% from ATH.
▪️ Gold and Silver: new all-time highs.
▪️ S&P 500 and Nasdaq: just a step away from ATH.

➠ Defensive assets are overheated
▪️ Gold is trading +25% above its 200-day MA, Silver +45%. Such levels were last seen in 2020 (COVID era).

➠ Stocks remain strong
▪️ S&P 500: -1% from ATH. Nasdaq: -3% from ATH.
▪️ Risk assets are not collapsing — they are near record highs.

➠ Bitcoin is lagging behind other assets
▪️ Since August, the BTC/Nasdaq correlation has diverged.
▪️ Since July, the BTC/Gold correlation has turned negative.
▪️ Bitcoin is no longer moving in sync with either tech stocks or “hard money.”

➠ The reason for BTC’s underperformance is selling pressure
▪️ ETF outflows since ATH: -$5.1 billion.
▪️ Sustained whale selling since October.
▪️ Capital has flowed into Gold/Silver, while stocks are rising on AI hype.
▪️ There are not enough buyers at current levels to drive Bitcoin higher.

➠ Why today’s PCE data is critical
▪️ Softer data → dovish Fed expectations → a potential catalyst for a BTC reversal.