Keypoints:

Ghana forecasts up to 5.1m oz of gold in 2025
Artisanal mining and new projects drive growth
Ageing mines, smuggling, and licensing still pose challenges

GHANA is set to push its gold output to a potential new record of 5.1 million ounces in 2025, up from last year’s 4.8 million ounces, according to projections by the Ghana Chamber of Mines. The forecast, released in the chamber’s annual report on Friday, signals a 6.25 percent rise and underscores the West African nation’s leading role as Africa’s top gold producer.

Chamber President Michael Akafia attributed the anticipated increase to higher output from small-scale miners and the expansion of new industrial operations, notably Newmont’s Ahafo South Mine and Shandong’s Namdini Mine.

‘We project gold output to range between 4.4 and 5.1 million ounces, buoyed by increased contributions from new large-scale developments,’ Akafia said during the Chamber’s annual meeting in Accra.

Artisanal miners drive record contributions
Ghana’s 2024 performance was bolstered by a record 39.4 percent contribution from small-scale miners. The artisanal sector is now at the heart of Ghana’s gold economy, despite longstanding concerns about environmental degradation and the high number of unlicensed operations.

To formalise the sector and curb illegal trade, the government launched a new agency, the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod), tasked with streamlining gold purchases and improving miner incomes. It has also removed a withholding tax on local gold sales—moves praised by industry representatives.

‘We’re looking at about 30 percent to 40 percent more production than the previous year,’ said Godwin Armah, General Secretary of the Ghana National Association of Small-Scale Miners. ‘The removal of the withholding tax has helped reduce smuggling significantly.’

The Chamber’s 2025 base-case outlook projects artisanal gold output to range between 1.5 million and 2 million ounces, slightly below the 1.9 million ounces recorded in 2024 but still significant.

New mines rise as old ones decline
While new projects are bolstering output, several mature operations are expected to decline. These include Perseus Mining’s Edikan Mine, Gold Fields’ Damang and Tarkwa sites, and Zijin’s Akyem Mine.

Akafia warned that without sustained exploration, the country risks stagnation. ‘Ghana needs a stronger pipeline of gold exploration projects to ensure long-term sustainability,’ he said.

Mineral growth beyond gold
Ghana’s mining expansion isn’t limited to gold. The Chamber also projects:

Manganese production to rise from 5 million to 8 million tonnes in 2025

Bauxite output to reach 2 million tonnes, up from 1.7 million tonnes in 2024

Diamond production to grow from 330,000 to 400,000 carats

The country’s resource-driven recovery comes as it emerges from its most severe economic crisis in a generation. With gold prices soaring, the surge in mineral exports has boosted foreign reserves and lent strength to the cedi.

Still, challenges remain. Regulatory uncertainty, illegal mining, and environmental damage continue to test Ghana’s ability to maintain both momentum and sustainability in its mining sector.