By El Ra| Space & Tech Laboratory

The sun is waking up, and for the African continent, this isn’t just a story about pretty lights in the Arctic. We are currently in the heart of Solar Cycle 25—and it is running significantly hotter than NASA and NOAA initially predicted.

Where Are We Now?
We have passed the official “solar minimum” (the quiet period around 2019/2020) and are rocketing toward the peak of activity, known as Solar Maximum. Initially, scientists predicted this peak would be weak, arriving in 2025 with around 115 sunspots. Instead, the sun has been consistently double-pumping.

Current forecasts now place the maximum occurring between now and early 2026, with sunspot numbers already exceeding 150. This is a “dynamite” solar cycle, not a “dud.”

The Pan-African Forecast: 2024–2026

1. Radio Blackouts (HF Comms)
   This is the biggest headline for African aviators, mariners, and emergency services. As solar flares increase, High Frequency (HF) radio signals—which bounce off the ionosphere—become erratic.

· Impact: Expect more frequent R1-R3 level radio blackouts across the continent, particularly affecting air traffic over the Sahara and maritime comms in the Gulf of Guinea and off the coast of Somalia.
· Advice: If you rely on HF radio, have a satellite or cellular backup plan ready.

2. The Equatorial Aurora (Visual Spectacle)
   Typically, the Northern Lights are for Tromsø, not Tanzania. However, during extreme geomagnetic storms (G4 or G5 levels), the aurora oval expands.

· Potential: For the first time in nearly 20 years, there is a legitimate chance of observing a “low latitude” aurora. Photographers in Northern Sudan, Ethiopia, and even northern Kenya should keep their eyes on space weather alerts. It will look like a red or green glow on the northern horizon, not the draping curtains seen in Norway.

3. Navigation & GPS Disruption
   This is a silent threat. Solar storms heat the Earth’s atmosphere, causing it to expand. This increases drag on low-orbit satellites and distorts GPS signals.

· Impact: Farmers using precision agriculture, surveyors, and even ride-hailing drivers may experience positioning errors of several metres. During severe storms, GPS may be unavailable for minutes at a time.

4. Power Grid Strain
   While South Africa and Nigeria have robust grid infrastructure, solar storms induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can trip transformers. Eskom and other national grids should be on high alert for “reactive power absorption” during the coming peak.

The Bright Side: DX Communications
For the continent’s amateur radio operators (hams), this is a golden age. High solar activity supercharges the F2 layer of the ionosphere, allowing VHF and UHF signals to travel thousands of kilometres. Expect to see more Pan-African QSOs (contacts) as enthusiasts in Lagos talk directly to peers in Nairobi without internet.

Monitoring the Situation
Pan African News recommends bookmarking the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and following the SANSA Space Weather Centre (South Africa) for regionalised alerts.

Summary
We are entering the explosive final act of Solar Cycle 25. While we won’t see cities burning or apocalyptic blackouts, the next 18 months will test our technological resilience. From radio silence in the Sahel to potential auroras on the Equator, the sun is reminding us that in space, Africa is just as exposed as the Arctic.

Stay tuned to Pan African News for live updates should a major “Cannibal CME” head our way.