February 21, 2025

The conflict in Sudan has escalated as the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) continue their strategic push westward, gaining significant ground against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). On February 20, 2025, SAF forces successfully captured the city of El Obeid, a key logistical and military hub in south-central Sudan. This victory not only strengthens SAF’s hold in the region but also sets the stage for a potential large-scale offensive into Darfur, a stronghold of the RSF.

The Strategic Importance of El Obeid

El Obeid’s capture marks a turning point in the ongoing conflict. The city is a vital transit point connecting Khartoum, Kordofan, and Darfur, making it a crucial target for both factions. By securing El Obeid, SAF has effectively severed key RSF supply lines, limiting their ability to maneuver and reinforce their positions.

Moreover, the takeover of El Obeid Airport provides SAF with a valuable airbase for launching future operations. The ability to deploy air support and transport troops efficiently will likely accelerate the army’s next moves, particularly towards Al Fasher, the capital of North Darfur and a major RSF command center.

Khartoum: The Battle for the Capital

While SAF consolidates its position in the west, fierce battles continue in Khartoum. Reports indicate that government forces have gained control over the eastern bank of the Nile River, severely restricting RSF’s mobility and supply routes within the city. Drone footage circulating online shows RSF convoys retreating towards western Sudan, suggesting a possible shift in strategy or a retreat towards Darfur.

If SAF succeeds in securing full control over Khartoum, it would mark a decisive shift in the conflict. The capital serves as the country’s administrative and economic center, and regaining it would significantly strengthen SAF’s military and logistical infrastructure. Additionally, the move would allow SAF to redirect more resources toward western Sudan, where the RSF still holds significant territory.

What’s Next?

With the fall of El Obeid, all eyes are now on Darfur, where RSF forces are likely to mount a strong resistance. A potential SAF offensive towards Al Fasher could determine the future of the conflict, as Darfur remains a critical stronghold for the RSF. The humanitarian situation is also expected to worsen, with civilians caught between advancing military forces and ongoing displacement.

The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with concerns over escalating violence and the potential for further regional instability. As Sudan’s war drags on, the outcome of these latest battles will shape the country’s political and military landscape for years to come.