Nigeria’s push to repair its stumbling oil sector has left it in a quandary.

Africa’s biggest crude producer wants output to return to its once-consistent 2 million barrels a day to fund a budget serving the continent’s most-populated country. That’s after vandalism and violence slashed production to as low as 1.1 million barrels in 2022 — the lowest level in half a century.


The nation has, in recent years, been haunted by a narrative of oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Equinor fleeing its fields due to security concerns, with the international companies holding out only on deepwater platforms.

A steady improvement in production, though, has taken the industry closer to the ceiling it had agreed to with its partners in OPEC+, the cartel that seeks to influence prices by controlling their collective tap. Last month, Nigeria reached 99% of the cap.

Its target will blow through the 1.5 million barrels it committed to. Yet, sticking to the quota won’t generate the revenue the nation so desperately needs to revive as stuttering economy and alleviate a cost-of-living crisis.

Authorities are banking on something changing.


Benefiting from greater output and honoring your duty to OPEC isn’t that complicated, says Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive officer of the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission. Meet the budget aspiration and then negotiate a quota increase, he proposes.

It wasn’t so easy for Angola.

Some African producers were pushed to accept reduced output targets that reflected their diminished production capabilities. Angola baulked, vowing to boost output and soon quit the group.

Nigeria may have to curb its ambitions if it wants to stay in the club.