
After almost 18 months of war, fighting in Sudan is escalating as seasonal rains end with the army using intensified airstrikes and allied fighters to shore up its position ahead of a likely surge by the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
An uptick in fighting will aggravate an already dire humanitarian crisis in which famine has been confirmed and over 10 million people – one fifth of the population – are displaced, more than anywhere else in the world. U.N. agencies have often been unable to deliver aid.
According to a senior Western diplomat in the region, speaking on condition of anonymity due to political sensitivities, “What we expect to come into the fall more and more is much more fragmentation, to see more armed groups getting involved … And this will make the situation in general much more difficult.”
The paramilitary RSF has had the upper hand during much of the conflict but last week the army, after shunning U.S.-led talks in Switzerland, launched its biggest offensive yet in the capital Khartoum, advancing across a key bridge over the Nile.
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