Tensions are growing between the Somali Federal Government (SFG) and the regional South West State government over the SFG’s decision to replace Ethiopian forces with Egyptian forces, which may result in a military conflict.

The SFG has also threatened to support ethno-nationalist insurgents in Ethiopia, which could exacerbate festering conflicts between the Ethiopian government and multiple ethno-nationalist militants in Ethiopia.

Ethiopia is facing several ethno-nationalist insurgencies across the country.

This includes a decentralized collection of Amhara militias known as Fano that have launched an offensive near the Sudanese border and Ethiopia’s second-largest city, Gondar, in September.

The SFG could also exploit growing tensions between the Ethiopian government and former Somali insurgents (the Ogaden National Liberation Front, ONLF) in the Somali Region in eastern Ethiopia.